BY MUSA SHUBOMI TIMILEYHIN
Global warming and heatwaves that are currently being experienced around the world are expected to further increase food prices and overall inflation in the not-too-distant future, according to new research from scientists and the European Central Bank.
According to the report published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment on Thursday, the impact of global warming and heatwaves will vary from one part of the world to another, especially in developing nations.
The impact on food prices and inflation from future warming would be most felt in ”regions that are already hotter” especially poorer and developing parts of the world in Africa and South America.
The northern hemisphere would not be spared the higher food prices as a result of climate extremes, the study found.
The study made it known that extreme weather, including heatwaves, droughts and floods, is becoming increasingly frequent as the climate heats up, taking a toll on every sector of the economy, including farming and food production.
The research also found out that a major heatwave across Europe in the summer of 2022 caused food inflation to rise by 0.67% points, with a greater impact in Southern Europe.
For this new study, researchers from the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the European Central Bank, drew on historical price and weather data from 121 countries between 1996 and 2021.
The researchers found that rising temperatures due to climate change were predicted to drive up the cost of food worldwide between 1.49% and 1.79%, points every year by 2035.
The effect of future warming and heat extremes on overall inflation would be between 0.76% and 0.91% points under a best and worst-case scenario.
One of the authors of the report from PIK, Maximillan Kotz, while speaking with Agence France Presse (AFP), said: ”We find this strong evidence that higher temperatures, particularly in the summer, or in the places that are hot, cause price increases mainly in food inflation but also in overall inflation.”
Kotz said the impact on food prices and inflation from future warming would be most felt in ”regions that are already hotter”, particularly the poorer countries in the developing parts of the world.
”In those places in the northern hemisphere, mainly in the summer, that’s where those things will mainly happen. Whereas in the rest of the world, it will be more spread out across the year,” he said.
Meanwhile, the researchers did not find that global warming had a significant impact on other household costs, except electricity prices. Kotz said this was ” fairly consistent” with other studies that demonstrated the particular sensitivity of agriculture to climate shocks”.
